Political Risk Dossier, Issue #1 - Summary

Executive Summary & Key Forecasts

  • Libyan National Army (LNA) has a reinforced military structure and newly gained territory; Khalifa Haftar positions his troops in the country’s centre in preparation for a Sirte offensive, with eyes set on Tripoli

  • Libya Desk anticipates the take over of Sirte by Haftar before Ramadan this May, peacefully entering Tripoli with assistance from two of the four major militias controlling it (pp. 3-4)

  • Prince Mohammed bin Zayed hosted talks between Haftar and Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Abu Dhabi, - mediated by the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General (UN SRSG) Ghassan Salamé- where a blueprint for political restructuring in Libya was drawn up, reforming the Presidential Council and reshuffling key cabinet positions (p.3)

  • The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) announced that an agreement has been reached between both men to hold elections in Libya in October 2019

  • Ghassan Salamé has scheduled a national conference in Ghadames from April 14th to April 16th.

  • Major changes expected to take place at the National Oil Corporation (NOC) following allegations of conflict of interest against Mustafa Sanalla. The incoming Chief plans to carry out a full review (p. 4)

The Current State of Affairs in Libya

Libya is today split between two camps with Khalifa Haftar gradually emerging as the dominant figure in the country, aligned with the regional administration in the East, and opposing the internationally recognised government in the West. The Tripoli based Presidential Council (PC) is fragile and weak, its only assets being international recognition, title and access to state funds.

Key Recent Developments

The PC has been fragmenting for the last 6 months. The most evident divisions being between …


3-Month Forecast

The blueprint drawn up in ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ consists of:

  • Reforming the Presidential Council and creating a unified government

  • Fayez al-Sarraj will be stepping down as Prime Minister, likely replaced by Mr. ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓

  • Cabinet reshuffle will exclude the current Minister of ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓

  • Replacement of ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ chief with Mr. ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓

  • Replacement of ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ as ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ by Mr. ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓

  • Khalifa Haftar as ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ and ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓

This plan along with a roadmap to elections will …


Major risks that Libya Desk foresees

  1. Weaponization of media/social media by all political parties resulting in a rumour and fake news bombardment that is further inciting divisions

  2. Fear of a Haftar offensive in Western Libya resulting in the resurfacing of extremist factions such as the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group that have spent the last two years disguised among separate factions and government institutions.

  3. Alarmed by the likelihood of losing influence in Libya, Qatar and Turkey double down by further supporting their proxies on the ground.

  4. An increase in terrorist activities to be expected throughout the country in hopes to destabilize any reconciliation efforts and prolonging the current status quo.

  5. Abu Dhabi agreement at risk as Haftar is entertaining a second offer from ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓, while al-Sarraj is breaking under pressures from Libyan militias in the West to back out and stand against the LNA strongman.