Posts in Analysis
How a Lingering Conflict Could Impact Libya's Oil Production

Two months after General Khalifa Haftar’s offensive on Tripoli, the much-anticipated oil slump has not yet hit Libya. On the contrary, the National Oil Company’s (NOC) oil production has continued to increase during the conflict, adding 90,000 bpd in April and reaching around 1.3 million bpd in May, an amount likely to be repeated in June. Overall, even if the past years have shown that oil production in war-torn Libya is too volatile to be taken at face value, the fact that output levels rise in spite of the conflict is surprising. Libya Desk analysed the impact of protracted conflict on Libya’s oil production.

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Analysis: Italy, Libya and the Ghost of Antonino di San Giuliano

The relationship between Italy and Libya has always been an erratic one, dating back to the early 1900s when Antonino Paternò-Castello di San Giuliano, Italy’s hawkish Foreign Minister, attempted to annex the North African country during the Turco-Italian War. In the context of the Libyan National Army’s offensive on Tripoli, Libya Desk analyses what went wrong between Italy and Libya, and where things currently stand.

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The battle for Tripoli and its impact on oil markets

Intense fighting has not yet impacted Libya’s oil output or exports. However, a protracted conflict could well make the North African country the kingpin for global oil prices. In the midst of all the chaos and uncertainty surrounding Haftar’s “Flood of Dignity” military offensive on Tripoli, Libya Desk examines the impact of the current escalation of conflict in Libya on the the Oil & Gas industry.

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Analysis: What went wrong in Libya

The recent days have seen a dramatic escalation of violence in Libya. Unfortunately, the majority of risks threatening the Libyan political solution forecasted by Libya Desk in our first Political Risk Dossier have been realised. In the uncertain aftermath of Khalifa Haftar’s offensive, we review the main predictions from the first Political Risk Dossier.

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Analysis: Haftar's offensive

The past twentyfour hours have seen a dramatic escalation of violence in Libya. A week before the peace-building National Conference in Ghadames, with the UN Secretary-General already in Libya, Khalifa Haftar ordered Libyan National Army (LNA) forces to advance on Tripoli, claiming his forces were battling terrorism and rooting out militias. In response to this military provocation, Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj of the Government of National Accord (GNA) issued a state of emergency asking all troops to be ready for combat.

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